Uk met office predicts 2026 will be among four hottest years on record, with temperatures 1.4°c above preindustrial levels

The UK Met Office has released its forecast for 2026, projecting that global temperatures will soar more than 1.4°C above preindustrial levels, marking another year of dangerous climate heating. While this prediction represents a slight cooling from 2024’s record-breaking 1.55°C increase—the hottest year ever recorded—2026 is still expected to rank among the four warmest years since comprehensive temperature records began in 1850.

The forecast underscores the relentless march of global warming, driven primarily by continued fossil fuel pollution that is literally baking our planet. This sustained heating is not just a matter of rising thermometers; it serves as the engine powering increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather events worldwide, from devastating hurricanes and floods to prolonged droughts and deadly heatwaves.

The Met Office’s projection reinforces a troubling pattern: even in years that may be slightly “cooler” than recent records, global temperatures remain dangerously elevated compared to historical norms. The fact that a year registering 1.4°C above preindustrial levels is considered relatively moderate highlights how dramatically our climate baseline has shifted in just a few decades.

This temperature forecast carries significant implications for international climate policy, as world leaders continue to grapple with limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels—the target established in the Paris Climate Agreement. With 2026 projected to approach this critical threshold, the window for preventing the most catastrophic climate impacts continues to narrow rapidly.