Beyond the crisis: 15 emerging forces that could transform conservation in the coming decade

Conservation efforts typically respond to visible environmental damage—deforestation, declining fish populations, and shrinking protected areas. But what about the less obvious changes that haven’t yet reached crisis levels? A groundbreaking study led by William J. Sutherland of Cambridge University, published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, identifies 15 emerging developments that could dramatically reshape biodiversity conservation over the next 10 years.

Rather than attempting predictions, this “horizon scan” serves as an early warning system for conservationists, highlighting technological, climatic, biological, and financial shifts that could have massive impacts. The research team focused on developments that are still poorly understood but carry significant potential consequences—the kind of changes professionals would rather anticipate than be blindsided by.

Several of the most transformative developments center on computational advances. Tiny machine-learning systems that operate on minimal power without internet connectivity could revolutionize ecological monitoring in remote, underfunded regions where conventional data collection has been impossible. However, this efficiency comes with a critical trade-off: when these systems process information on-site and discard data they deem irrelevant, opportunities for future reanalysis disappear forever.

The study also highlights promising developments in optical AI chips that use light instead of electricity for processing. These innovations represent just a fraction of the technological, environmental, and economic forces that could reshape conservation strategies in ways we’re only beginning to understand. By identifying these emerging trends early, conservationists can better prepare for—and potentially influence—the future of biodiversity protection.