Amazon Deforestation Drops, But Fire Risk Soars Before COP30

Brazil is heading into next month’s COP30 climate summit in Belém with encouraging news on Amazon deforestation—but a troubling new wildfire crisis is emerging. Government satellite data shows deforestation in Brazil’s Legal Amazon fell 11% over the past year to 5,796 square kilometers, the lowest level since 2014. The neighboring Cerrado savanna also saw an 11.5% drop in forest clearing to 7,235 square kilometers.

The improvements represent a dramatic policy reversal under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has restored environmental protections that were rolled back during his predecessor’s administration when deforestation rates soared. Both government monitoring systems and independent environmental groups confirm the downward trend in forest clearing for agriculture and development.

However, scientists warn that the nature of Amazon forest loss is fundamentally changing. While chainsaws may be claiming fewer trees, fires are becoming an increasingly dangerous threat. Years of selective logging, road building, and climate-driven drought are transforming once-humid rainforest areas into dry, fire-prone landscapes. Regions that were previously protected by the Amazon’s natural moisture are now vulnerable to the kind of devastating wildfires typically seen in drier ecosystems.

This shift from deforestation to fire-based forest loss presents new challenges for Brazil’s conservation efforts. As world leaders gather for COP30, the Amazon’s story illustrates both the potential for policy success and the growing complexity of protecting critical ecosystems in an era of climate change.