New study reveals ocean damage nearly doubles the true cost of climate change

A groundbreaking study from UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography has revealed that the global economic cost of greenhouse gas emissions is nearly twice what scientists previously estimated. Published Thursday, this research represents the first time a social cost of carbon (SCC) assessment—a critical measure of economic harm caused by climate change—has included comprehensive impacts on ocean ecosystems.

The study, led by researchers Johnny Sturgeon and colleagues, highlights a massive oversight in climate economics: the exclusion of ocean-related economic damages has created what they call a “multi-trillion-dollar blind spot” in climate finance. The social cost of carbon is a crucial metric used by governments and organizations worldwide to evaluate the economic benefits of policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

By incorporating previously overlooked ocean impacts—including damage to fisheries, coastal protection services, carbon sequestration capacity, and marine biodiversity—the researchers found that each ton of carbon dioxide emitted causes significantly more economic harm than current models suggest. This revelation has profound implications for climate policy and investment decisions.

The findings underscore the critical importance of the “blue economy”—economic activities that depend on healthy ocean ecosystems—which has been largely ignored in traditional climate cost assessments. As policymakers work to address climate change, this research suggests that protecting and restoring ocean health should be considered not just an environmental priority, but an economic imperative that could save trillions of dollars in climate-related damages.