Brazilian amazon faces 30% deforestation surge as soy giants abandon historic conservation pact

The Brazilian Amazon is heading toward a potential environmental disaster as major global soy traders prepare to abandon a groundbreaking conservation agreement that has protected millions of acres of rainforest for nearly two decades. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove), representing agricultural giants including Cargill, Bunge, and ADM, announced in early January their intention to withdraw from the Soy Moratorium—a voluntary pact that prohibited purchasing soybeans from areas deforested after 2008.

This decision could trigger a devastating 30% increase in Amazon deforestation by 2045, according to projections from the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM). Such massive forest loss would push the world’s largest rainforest dangerously close to an ecological tipping point, where it could transform from a carbon sink into a carbon source, accelerating global climate change.

The withdrawal stems from new legislation in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soy-producing state, which allows the government to suspend tax breaks for companies that adopt environmental standards stricter than Brazilian law requires. While Brazil permits deforestation of up to 20% of Amazon properties under existing regulations, the soy moratorium went further by blacklisting any land cleared after 2008, regardless of legal compliance.

The timing is particularly concerning as Brazil remains the world’s largest soy exporter, with Abiove members controlling nearly 45% of global shipments. Environmental groups warn that without the moratorium’s protections, land grabbers are already moving into pristine forest areas, clearing land in anticipation of lucrative soy cultivation as international buyers lose their primary tool for ensuring deforestation-free supply chains.